LAYER 1: PLANETARY FOUNDATIONS
Atmospheric Systems & Novel Entities
Three boundaries spanning atmospheric chemistry and synthetic substances – from the ozone success story to the emerging chemicals crisis.
In 30 Seconds
Three planetary boundaries address atmospheric chemistry and synthetic substances:
- Stratospheric Ozone– The success story. Montreal Protocol worked. Boundary is SAFE.
- Atmospheric Aerosols– Regional air pollution. No global boundary quantified, but severe local impacts.
- Novel Entities– Chemicals, plastics, synthetics. Boundary CROSSED in 2022. The emerging crisis.
Ozone proves boundaries can be respected through global cooperation. Novel Entities shows we're creating new risks faster than we can assess them. Between these extremes lies the challenge of 21st-century environmental governance.
Where This Fits
This page covers three of the nine planetary boundaries – two addressing atmospheric chemistry and one addressing the flood of synthetic substances humans have released into the environment.
The Nine Boundaries – Atmospheric & Synthetic Cluster
ATMOSPHERIC & NOVEL (This Page)
- Stratospheric Ozone (Safe)
- Atmospheric Aerosols (Regional)
- Novel Entities (Crossed)
OTHER BOUNDARIES
- Climate Change
- Ocean Acidification
- Biosphere Integrity
- Land-System Change
- Freshwater Change
- Biogeochemical Flows
These three boundaries share a common theme: human-made disruption to atmospheric and chemical systems. CFCs destroyed ozone. Aerosols pollute air. Synthetics contaminate ecosystems. The solutions require different governance approaches – from the successful Montreal Protocol to the emerging plastics treaty.
The Three Boundaries
One success, one regional challenge, one emerging crisis – together they show the full spectrum of humanity's atmospheric and chemical impact.
1. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
SAFEThe success story – proof that global environmental cooperation can work
What It Measures
- Ozone concentration: Dobson units (DU) in stratosphere
- Ozone-depleting substances: CFCs, HCFCs, halons in atmosphere
- UV radiation: Surface levels of harmful UV-B
Current Status
- Boundary: <5% reduction from pre-industrial (275 DU)
- Current: Within safe zone, recovering
- Antarctic ozone hole: Healing, expected full recovery by ~2066
- CFCs: 99% phased out under Montreal Protocol
The Montreal Protocol: A Model for Global Action
Signed in 1987, the Montreal Protocol is the most successful environmental treaty in history. It phased out 99% of ozone-depleting substances. The ozone layer is recovering. Key success factors: clear science, identified culprits (CFCs), available alternatives, industry cooperation, and a compliance mechanism with trade measures. This template informs current efforts on plastics and climate.
Business Relevance Today
Largely resolved for most businesses. Remaining issues: HFCs (used as CFC replacements) are potent greenhouse gases now being phased down under the Kigali Amendment. HVAC, refrigeration, and foam-blowing sectors face transition costs. Medical inhalers and specialty applications have exemptions but face pressure.
2. Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
REGIONALAir pollution at scale – no global boundary quantified, but severe regional impacts
What It Measures
- Aerosol optical depth: Particles blocking/scattering sunlight
- PM2.5/PM10: Particulate matter concentration
- Black carbon: Soot from combustion
- Monsoon impacts: Regional rainfall disruption
Current Status
- No global boundary set (effects too regional)
- Severe in South Asia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa
- Improving in Europe/North America (clean air acts)
- 7 million premature deaths annually from air pollution (WHO)
Why No Global Boundary?
Unlike CO2 which mixes globally, aerosols have short atmospheric lifetimes (days to weeks) and concentrate near emission sources. Delhi's air quality crisis doesn't directly affect London. This makes it a regional governance challenge rather than a global threshold. Complication: Some aerosols (sulfates) actually cool the climate, masking ~0.5°C of warming. Cleaning up air pollution accelerates visible warming.
Business Relevance
Direct emitters: Manufacturing, power generation, transport, construction face increasingly strict air quality regulations. Supply chain: Operations in high-pollution regions face worker health costs, productivity impacts, and reputational risk. Opportunity: Clean air technology, industrial filtration, electric vehicles, monitoring systems.
3. Novel Entities
CROSSEDSynthetic chemicals, plastics, and new substances – the emerging planetary crisis
What It Includes
- Plastics: 8+ billion tonnes produced historically, most still exists
- Synthetic chemicals: 350,000+ registered, most untested for safety
- PFAS: “Forever chemicals” – persistent, bioaccumulative
- Pesticides, pharmaceuticals, industrial compounds
Current Status
- Boundary crossed as of 2022 (Persson et al.)
- Production exceeds planetary capacity to assess/contain
- Microplastics found everywhere: oceans, air, blood, placentas
- PFAS detected in 98% of Americans' blood
Why “Crossed”?
The boundary isn't about a single chemical threshold. It's about the rate at which we're introducing novel substances exceeding our capacity to assess their safety. We've created ~350,000 synthetic chemicals. Only a fraction have been tested for environmental/health impacts. Many are persistent (don't break down), bioaccumulative (concentrate up food chains), and toxic. We're running a planetary-scale experiment.
The Plastics Crisis
- 400 million tonnes produced annually
- <10% ever recycled
- By 2050: more plastic than fish in oceans (by weight)
- UN Plastics Treaty negotiations underway
The PFAS Crisis
- 12,000+ PFAS compounds
- Half-life: thousands of years
- Linked to cancers, immune suppression, thyroid disease
- Regulatory bans accelerating (EU, US states)
Business Relevance
Liability exposure: PFAS litigation already exceeds $10 billion. Chemical companies, manufacturers using PFAS, water utilities face massive claims. Regulatory tsunami: EU REACH restrictions expanding, US EPA PFAS rules, single-use plastic bans proliferating. Extended Producer Responsibility: Packaging, textiles, electronics face take-back requirements. Opportunity: Green chemistry, bio-based materials, circular design, remediation services.
Why These Boundaries Are Connected
All three involve human-made substances disrupting natural systems beyond their capacity to cope.
The Governance Spectrum
Ozone
SOLVED
Montreal Protocol
Global treaty, 99% compliance
Aerosols
REGIONAL
National clean air acts
Progress varies by region
Novel Entities
EMERGING
Plastics treaty in negotiation
PFAS regulation accelerating
Ozone as Template
The Montreal Protocol success offers lessons for plastics and chemicals governance: clear science, identified sources, available alternatives, and enforcement mechanisms.
Speed vs. Assessment
Chemical innovation outpaces safety testing. We synthesize thousands of new compounds annually but assess a fraction. This is the core Novel Entities problem.
Persistence Problem
CFCs, PFAS, and plastics share a trait: extreme persistence. Once released, they remain in the environment for decades to millennia. Prevention matters more than cleanup.
Health-Environment Link
All three affect human health directly (UV exposure, air pollution, chemical toxicity) and indirectly (ecosystem disruption). Boundaries protect both people and planet.
The Key Lesson
Ozone proves that humanity CAN recognize planetary boundaries and act in time. Novel Entities shows we're failing to apply that lesson to the chemical revolution. The next decade will determine whether plastics and PFAS follow the ozone pathway (governance success) or become irreversible contamination. Business positioning now matters.
How This Maps to Practitioner Categories
Professional bodies like ISEP organize practitioners by activity. These boundaries span multiple practice areas.
Relevant ISEP Practice Areas
| Practice Area | Connection to These Boundaries |
|---|---|
| Environmental Management | Air quality management, chemical safety, pollution control |
| Circular Economy | Plastics, materials flow, extended producer responsibility |
| Impact Assessment | Chemical risk assessment, EIA for industrial facilities |
| Climate Change M&A | HFCs (ozone-climate link), aerosol-climate interactions |
The Pandion Perspective
Environmental managers focus on compliance (permits, emissions limits, waste handling). Understanding the planetary context – why certain substances are being restricted, where regulation is heading – enables strategic rather than reactive positioning. The companies that anticipated PFAS regulation are now competitors to those scrambling to comply.
Business Risks & Opportunities
Regulatory Risks
Chemical and materials regulation accelerating globally
- EU REACH: Expanding restrictions on chemicals, PFAS phase-out proposed
- US EPA: PFAS drinking water limits, Superfund liability expansion
- Single-use plastics: Bans proliferating (EU, UK, 100+ countries)
- Extended Producer Responsibility: Packaging, textiles, electronics take-back
- UN Plastics Treaty: Expected 2024-2025, binding global rules possible
Liability Risks
Chemical contamination litigation expanding rapidly
- PFAS litigation: $10+ billion in settlements, 6,000+ lawsuits pending
- Plastics: Emerging claims for microplastic health impacts
- Duty to disclose: Material risks to investors, communities
- Remediation costs: Contaminated sites, water treatment upgrades
- Product liability: Failure to warn, design defect claims
Chemicals
Risk: High
Direct exposure to restrictions, liability, reformulation costs
Consumer Goods
Risk: Medium-High
Packaging, product materials, supply chain compliance
Manufacturing
Risk: Medium
Process chemicals, coatings, lubricants, PFAS in equipment
The Opportunity Frame
Regulation creates markets. Green chemistry (safer alternatives), bio-based materials, circular design, remediation services, and monitoring/testing technology are growth sectors. Companies moving early capture market position and avoid last-minute compliance costs. The plastics transition alone represents a multi-trillion dollar materials substitution opportunity.
Who Works on Atmospheric & Chemical Systems
International Governance
Treaties and coordination
UNEP, Montreal Protocol, Stockholm/Basel/Rotterdam Conventions, INC (plastics treaty)
What global rules should govern chemicals and pollutants?
Regulators
National/regional enforcement
EPA, ECHA, HSE, national environment agencies, health ministries
Which substances should be restricted and how?
Science & Assessment
Research and risk evaluation
IPCS, universities, national toxicology programs, WHO
What are the impacts of chemical exposures?
Industry
Production and compliance
Chemical manufacturers, plastics producers, downstream users, industry associations
How do we innovate while managing risk?
Civil Society
Advocacy and accountability
ChemSec, Plastic Pollution Coalition, environmental health NGOs
Are regulations sufficient? Is industry complying?
Green Chemistry
Safer alternatives
ACS Green Chemistry Institute, universities, startups, corporate R&D
Can we achieve the same function with safer substances?
The Pandion View
These three boundaries tell a story about humanity's relationship with the substances we create. Ozone shows we CAN govern successfully. Novel Entities shows we're failing to keep up with our own innovation.
The business implication is clear: chemical and materials risk is becoming a board-level issue. PFAS, plastics, and emerging substances of concern are creating liability, regulatory, and reputational exposures that parallel the climate transition. Companies that understand the planetary context – not just individual regulations – will position more strategically.
We help clients understand where chemical regulation is heading and why, identify material risks in their operations and supply chains, and develop strategies that anticipate rather than react to the tightening governance of synthetic substances. See also Climate System – the boundaries that most often drive corporate sustainability strategy.
Where To Go Next
Operational Delivery (L5)
Environmental management systems, pollution control, and operational compliance.
Ecosystem Services (L3)
Circular economy, waste as resource, and regenerative approaches to materials.
Climate System
Climate Change and Ocean Acidification – the CO2-driven boundaries.
All Planetary Boundaries
The complete L1 overview – all nine boundaries and why they matter for business.
Sources: Stockholm Resilience Centre (Planetary Boundaries 2023 update), Persson et al. 2022 (Novel Entities boundary assessment), UNEP Ozone Secretariat, WHO Air Quality, ISEP Policy & Practice Areas. This content is for educational purposes. For specific guidance, consult appropriately qualified professionals.