CAPITAL FLOWS: MARKET MECHANISMS

Biodiversity Markets

A Systems View

Mapping biodiversity markets across the 5-layer sustainability framework.
How capital flows from investors to landscape actors.

In 30 Seconds

Biodiversity markets - including credits, offsets, and payment for ecosystem services - are emerging mechanisms to channel capital toward nature protection and restoration.

  • ChallengeFarmers ask: "How do I get income from biodiversity protection?" Currently vague.
  • OpportunityStacked revenues (carbon + biodiversity + water + productive use) on the same landscape.
  • GapCapital IN exists. Capital THROUGH is fragmented. Capital OUT to landscape actors is unclear.

Key insight: Biodiversity markets don't exist in isolation - they connect planetary science, ecosystem services, landscape management, policy frameworks, and corporate action.

The 5 Layers: Where Biodiversity Markets Fit

Mapping against the Pandion Sustainability Framework

L5

Corporate Action

Why companies engage with biodiversity credits

  • Disclosure compliance - TNFD/CSRD requires nature impact reporting
  • Supply chain risk - Dependencies on ecosystem services create business risk
  • Net zero + nature - Climate commitments expanding to include nature-positive targets
  • Planning/development - BNG requirements for construction projects

Corporate concerns:

  • Greenwashing risk - Are credits credible?
  • Additionality - Would outcomes happen anyway?
  • Permanence - Will results last?
  • Verification - Who audits? What standards?
L4

Policy & Governance

The regulatory architecture shaping credit demand and supply

BNG (UK)Mandatory 10% net gain creates compliance demand
TNFDDisclosure requirements drive voluntary corporate demand
CSRD/ESRS E4EU mandatory nature reporting
ISSB S3Coming global standard will mainstream nature disclosure
EUDRSupply chain due diligence creates verified sourcing demand
Kunming-Montreal GBFTarget 15 business disclosure expectations

Regulatory trajectory: Voluntary → expected → mandatory. TNFD following TCFD's path.

L3

Ecosystem Services

What functioning ecosystems provide - and what credits protect

Provisioning

Credits can support land management that maintains productive capacity

Regulating (Primary focus)

Pollination, water regulation, soil health, flood attenuation

The stacking opportunity: Biodiversity credits as one revenue stream among many from the same landscape.

L2

Landscapes & Jurisdictions

Where biodiversity outcomes actually happen

  • Agricultural - Hedgerows, field margins, cover crops, reduced tillage
  • Forestry/woodland - Native species, structural diversity
  • Wetlands/peatlands - Restoration generates both carbon and biodiversity value
  • Coastal/marine - Emerging "blue credits" for mangroves, seagrass
  • Urban/brownfield - BNG requirements driving urban biodiversity

Landscape-level thinking: Jurisdictional approaches may be more effective than fragmented site-by-site credits.

L1

Planetary Foundations

The science underpinning why biodiversity matters

  • Biosphere integrity - Credits aim to protect/restore living systems that maintain planetary boundaries
  • Land-system change - Credits can incentivise land use that maintains ecosystem function
  • Climate-nature nexus - Biodiversity and carbon are interconnected

Credits must deliver real ecological outcomes, not just metric compliance.

Capital Flows: How Money Moves

Capital IN

Investment entering the system

  • Institutional investors
  • Corporate buyers (BNG, voluntary)
  • Blended finance
  • Development finance (DFIs)

Capital THROUGH

Mechanisms moving money

  • Credit registries
  • Aggregators/intermediaries
  • Natural capital funds
  • Payment schemes (ELMS, PES)
  • Verification bodies (MRV)

Capital OUT

Revenue reaching landscape actors

  • Farmers/land stewards
  • Landowners
  • Conservation organisations
  • Community groups
  • Supply chain actors

The Blockage

Capital IN exists. Capital THROUGH is emerging but fragmented. Capital OUT to landscape actors remains unclear. The farmer's question - "how do I actually get income from biodiversity protection?" - often lacks a clear answer.

The Stacked Revenue Model

Biodiversity credits as part of an integrated landscape revenue model.

Same landscape, multiple revenue streams:
├── Provisioning (product sales - potentially premium pricing)
├── Carbon credits (established pathways)
├── Biodiversity credits (emerging)
├── Water quality payments (emerging)
└── Other regulating services (flood risk, pollination - future)

Why This Matters

  • Single-credit models may not create viable economics
  • Stacked revenues = more resilient income
  • More durable outcomes for investors

What's Needed

  • Coordination across payment mechanisms
  • Shared data/verification infrastructure
  • Clear pathways for landscape actors

Data Flows: The Four Evidence Types

Biodiversity markets require robust data infrastructure across four key evidence categories.Learn more about Data Flows →

MRV Systems

Measurement, Reporting, Verification

  • Baseline: Pre-intervention habitat assessment
  • Metrics: BNG units, species counts, habitat quality
  • Verification: Third-party ecological audits
  • Monitoring: Remote sensing + ground-truth surveys

Traceability

Credit provenance and chain of custody

  • Registry IDs: Unique credit serial numbers
  • Ownership chain: Issuance → transfer → retirement
  • Site location: Geographic origin and boundaries
  • Double-counting: Prevention across markets

Disclosure Data

Corporate reporting requirements

  • TNFD alignment: Nature-related disclosures
  • BNG compliance: Planning condition evidence
  • Regulatory filings: CSRD, ESRS E4 requirements
  • Frameworks: SBTN, GBF Target 15 reporting

Impact Evidence

Beyond biodiversity outcomes

  • Co-benefits: Carbon, water quality, community
  • Additionality: Counterfactual analysis evidence
  • Permanence: Long-term outcome durability
  • Ecological integrity: Real outcomes vs metric gaming

The Data Infrastructure Challenge

Unlike carbon (tonnes CO2e), biodiversity lacks a universal metric. This creates verification challenges and limits market fungibility. High-integrity credits require strong MRV systems, clear traceability, compliant disclosure data, and demonstrable impact evidence across multiple dimensions - species, habitats, ecosystem function, and co-benefits.

The Three Enablers

Digital Infrastructure

  • Remote sensing for outcome verification
  • Registries for credit tracking
  • Platforms connecting buyers and sellers
  • IoT/sensors for ground-truth data

AI & Automation

  • Species identification (computer vision)
  • Predictive ecosystem modelling
  • Multi-source data synthesis
  • Anomaly detection for reversals

Standards & Interoperability

  • Consistent quantification methodologies
  • Third-party certification frameworks
  • Data standards for comparison
  • Registry protocols (double-counting)

Key Questions

For Investors:

How do you assess biodiversity credit quality and avoid greenwashing risk?

For Corporates:

How do credits fit your nature strategy - offsetting residual impacts or driving supply chain transformation?

For Landscape actors:

How do you access credit markets without prohibitive transaction costs?

For Policy makers:

How do mandatory and voluntary markets interact? Does BNG crowd out or complement voluntary action?

For The system:

Can biodiversity credits scale while maintaining ecological integrity?

Pandion's Perspective

We work across all five layers - understanding planetary science, ecosystem services, landscape realities, policy frameworks, and corporate needs.

Translate between different stakeholder languages
Identify where capital flows are blocked
Design data architectures that serve multiple purposes
Connect landscape actors to appropriate mechanisms
Assess credit quality beyond surface-level claims

The question isn't just "do credits work?" but "how do credits fit within the broader system of nature finance?"

Disclaimer: This content is for general educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice and should not be relied upon as such. Pandion Studio does not provide regulated investment advice.